Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, September 27th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory despite stronger than expected economic news. Stocks are calm with the Dow down 13 points and the Nasdaq up 28 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32 (4.52%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates slightly. If you saw an intraday increase yesterday, you should see a larger improvement this morning.

7/32

Bonds

30 yr - 4.52%

13

Dow

33,605

28

NASDAQ

13,092

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High

Negative

Durable Goods Orders

This morning’s sole relevant economic data was August's Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET. It revealed a 0.2% rise in new orders for big-ticket products such as airplanes, electronics and appliances. Forecasts were calling for a decline of 0.2%. A secondary reading that excludes more volatile transportation-related orders (airplanes) came in a tad stronger than thought also. Fortunately, this data is known to be quite volatile from month to month, so the variance is pretty inconsequential and had little impact on this morning’s rates.

Medium

Unknown

Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

The Treasury Department is auctioning 5-year Notes today, followed by 7-year Notes tomorrow. These sales will tell us if there is an appetite in the markets for medium-term securities. A strong demand from investors, particularly from international buyers, should lead to the broader bond market moving higher, pushing mortgage rates lower. On the other hand, a lackluster interest in the securities could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage pricing. The results of the sales will be announced at 1:00 PM ET each day, so any reaction will come during afternoon trading today and/or tomorrow.

Low

Unknown

GDP Rev 2 (month after Rev 1)

Tomorrow morning brings us the second revision to last quarter’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading and the weekly unemployment numbers, both at 8:30 AM ET. While the GDP is important because it is the total sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is considered the best gauge of economic activity, this data is quite aged now and the preliminary reading of the current quarter will be released next month. I don't see this update having much of an impact on the financial markets or mortgage pricing. It is expected to show that the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.1%, unchanged from last month's estimate. A significant downward revision would be considered favorable news for rates even though it probably will have a minimal impact on rates either way.

Medium

Unknown

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Analysts are predicting the weekly unemployment figures to say 215,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This would be an increase from the previous week. Rising claims is a sign of employment sector weakness, so a larger than expected number would be good news for mortgage shoppers.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Firelight Mortgage Consultants

Company NMLS#: 381658

7887 East Belleview Ave Ste 1100
Englewood, CO 80111
Equal Housing Lender
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